Children develop the ability to make an educated guess with practice. Usually their guesses start off being way out of the ball park – going for the biggest number rather than the correct number.
Making it a game will engage your child's sense of play and wonder.
Sparking her curiosity will give her an opportunity of new ways of thinking.
Guessing/Estimating
Before your child makes her guess, explain what a guess is. Explain that guessing isn't about being exact it's about being close. You may want to explain that sometimes it's good to guess and sometimes you need to be exact. Guessing is a good tool for later in life when your child does math problems. She'll be able to estimate what the answer should be then do the calculations. If the answer to her problem isn't close to her estimation, the answer is most likely wrong.
Guessing can be hard for some children, who strive for perfection and they want the guess to be the exact number of items. Playing guessing games will help them feel more comfortable.
Guessing Activity
- Take a group of familiar objects that are of similar size: golf balls, toy cars, Lego blocks, long pretzel sticks…and put them together so your daughter can see them but can't actually count each one. You can use a bowl, basket or a plastic jar.
- Ask your daughter to guess how many objects there are.
She'll probably respond with "I don't know" or "Okay" and begin to count them. You immediately have to say, "Without counting them."
She'll probably look at you like your nuts – it's okay, you are not nuts!
You can say, "Well, do you think there are more than five? More than 100? So approximately how many do you think?"
Usually children give a random number at first. They know that you want a number but they haven't learned how to use their sense of numbers to make it an educated guess yet.
Whatever they answer is acceptable. The point is over time to get closer to the actually number.
- Now she can count them. Putting them into groups of 10 is helpful because in the near future she is going to be working on numbers in groups of ten and if she needs to recount them she won't have to start over.
Parent tip: Line the objects up left to right 
for counting.
Was your daughter surprised by how many objects there were?
Trick to Estimating
Now you can show her a trick to estimating.
- One way is to show her 10 of the objects and have her compare it to the whole. "If this is how big 10 (objects) are, how many (objects) do you think are there?"
- Or point out if 10 objects are the same size as… her finger or thumb. She can use it as a way to measure how many times her finger or thumb can cover the area. It won't give her an exact number but with practice the numbers will get closer.
Re-enforcement Activities
- Do the Guessing Activity with other objects around the house – just be sure to use objects that have a uniform shape and size (more or less). You might want to do one a week. Have a jar in the kitchen with a note pad and pencil for her to record her guesses.
Using the same size jar or container for a variety of sized objects will help her develop a sense of volume. She will also start to see that different objects take up different amounts of space.
Perhaps fill it with her favorite: toys, candies, berries… that she may enjoy after she has made her estimation.
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Start with larger objects and work to smaller ones as she becomes more comfortable with the process. Tell your child that you have changed the size of the items and see if she adjust her answer accordingly.
- When your child is older, you can add questions like, "Do we have enough for everyone? How many will everyone get?" She will be doing mental math and division in a real life situation which helps make it relevant.
Assessment
Each time you set out an estimating jar, does she revise her number closer to the actual number of items? Is she refining the numbers or still making a random guess?
For more information on estimating, see our blog.
With experience your child will develop a sense of what is a good guess. It will be an educated guess based on the skills you give her through practice.
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